What’d They Say? A Look At Other Winter Outlooks.

So we talked about this…MWC isn’t likely to post a winter outlook this year, at least as of right now. We still may do something by our typical Thanksgiving posting date. However, I’ll peek and look at what some are saying. This will serve as a comprehensive list of what others are saying about this winter. Who are these “others” I speak of? Meteorologists, forecasters and others I look to and trust with this stuff. So, here we go:

Doug Kammerer/StormTeam4 (NBC 4)

Capital Weather Gang (Washington Post)

National Weather Service (NOAA)

AccuWeather

Joe Bastardi (WeatherBell)

Cirrus Weather (MWC Affiliate)

WeatherOn (MWC Affiliate)

More will come as time progresses, but for now…this is what we’ve got.

Let’s Catch Up

Hello there. Long time no speak. It’s been well over four months since I last published some sort of relevant post on here. Long story short, my summer was a thrilling/busy/exciting tiring/amazing one. I was a intern with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs baseball team working in creative services. I could go on and on about the times that were had, but you have no time and neither do I.

I’m still with the Crabs as the community relations coordinator now, and with offseason upon us, I can give this site some attention it’s earned.

I gave this site a little facelift and will be trimming some ‘fat’ off it, making it what it’s been meant to be all along: Simple. Facebook and Twitter will get brought back up again. Forecasts will hope to become more frequent and dead air less frequent. I’m working towards gaining a few folks to work along side on the site as well, we’ll get to that eventually.

With that said, one item I’d like to discuss in the winter. I have full expectation to do normal forecasts for winter events, however I am on the fence about a seasonal forecast. MWC suffered a hit in ‘staffing’ I guess you could say as Mark Gonzalez moved on to sunny Florida as the summer started. He is well and has continued his love for forecasting on his new Facebook page.

Mark had the long term forecasting knack down. It was great and it’s what MWC has had its foundation set on around Thanksgiving every year. We ditched the forecast for outlooks about two years ago because we didn’t want to put a flag in the ground with a “HEY LOOK THIS WILL HAPPEN!” kind of mentality. Weather does not work like that, it changes, it moves, it flows and doesn’t give a second thought to a blog’s forecast. The outlook was a snapshot as to what things were looking like at that moment. Just pure relay of what the data was saying, nothing more or less. This year with Mark gone, we’re changing it all. No choice, honestly.

We’ll post what some other reliable weather outlets think about the winter ahead, but for us its day-to-day forecasting we’ll stick to, with peeks as to what the models are saying near term.

I’m posting this purley to hit “refresh” on a page and site that needs it. Those who have been following us for years are the best and you guys have deserved at least one more push at keeping this thing alive and well.

Thanks for the support. – Josh

Rainy Commute Home For Wednesday, Damp Start To Thursday

A coastal storm is moving it’s way up the coast and looks to impact the area from south to north starting Wednesday evening around rush hour. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) anticipates an inch of rain to fall across parts of central and southern Maryland, including the DC and Baltimore metro areas. Upwards of two inches could fall across the eastern shore.

The National Weather Service in Sterling (LWX) has issued a flood watch for Anne Arundel, Harford, Prince Georges, Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore counties from 6:00pm Wednesday through early Thursday.

LWX mentions that periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected as a low pressure tracks north up the coast.

“…Persistent moderate to locally heavy rain may cause flooding of low lying areas…especially in urban areas and locations prone to freshwater flooding. Never cross roads that are flooded. Turn around don`t drown.” –Excerpt from NWS Flood Watch Statement, 9/24/13 11:49am

While WPC shows an inch of rain around the metro areas, LWX thinks upward of 2″ could fall with higher amounts in local areas.

This storm could have potential impacts on the Nationals game in DC tonight at 7:05pm.

Autumns 2014 Debut Provided A Stunning Sunset

September 23, 2014 was the first full day of Autumn, it always was the first Nationals home game since September 10th. Autumns debut went out in a stunning way with an incredible sunset. The colorful view was caught at Nationals Park. Shout out to Capital Weather Gang for posting some of these.

Tonight may not be as nice, as rain and showers could impact the game.

March 5/7 Snow Outlook

SNOW POSSIBILITIES LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY

Outlook for March 5/6, 2013 | Mark Gonzalez

Original post on MWC Facebook

TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING: precipitation starts to move in from the south/southwest by rush hour… will probably start as rain for everyone in the Metro and south and east.. further west mostly snow.

OVERNIGHT TUES/EARLY WED morning: as precip. intensity begins to increase we should see some dynamic cooling and a changeover to SNOW from west to east overnight into early Wed morning…although ocean/bay influences may cause RAIN to hang on longer on the Eastern Shore and near the bay through the late AM hours. However, If the storm tracks further south, this will allow more cold air to seep in further south and east causing the changeover to occur more quickly south and east of I-95.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Heavy snow and winds will prevail… significant accumulations are a good bet and maybe power outages as well. The variability of the RAIN-SNOW line and where it sets up makes exact accumulations still a bit difficult to forecast at this point-we have to remember that for the Metro area and south and east to get heavy snow accumulations in March and break through that higher sun angle we need heavy intensity of precip and a strong flow of arctic air from the north. At any rate its a good bet west of the Chesapeake Bay (but east of the Blue Ridge) someone receives 12 inches plus…precip changes to all snow for everyone all the way to the coast as the storm exits late Wednesday night. Some snow bands may hang on into early Thursday morning possibly giving the Eastern Shore a additional shot at significant accumulations.

In summary- more snow the further south and west you are-these are not exact amounts rather potential accumulations as we see at this point-expect this to change:

the Eastern Shore and NE Maryland-4 inches plus
Baltimore Metro- 6 inches plus
Southern Maryland and Annapolis-8 inches plus
DC Metro Area-12 inches plus
Western Maryland- 8 inches plus
(Mark G)